CIne-Pop Staff Reacts to the Oscars
CINE-POP OSCAR BALLOT
I polled the members of the Cine-Pop team to get their thoughts on the upcoming Oscars ceremony, which will be on Sunday, April 25th.
This ballot is a compilation of everyone’s predictions and wishes for Oscar winners (with some edits for length and clarity). We didn’t talk to each other when filling out the forms, so sometimes we repeated each other, and sometimes we completely disagreed. If you want to play along, you can fill out an Oscar ballot like this one (credit to Punchbowl) and tell us how you did.
First off, how do you fill out your Oscar ballot? Do you watch the movies first? Are you picking movies you like or movies you think will win?
David: [I’m picking] movies I believe should win.
Tom: [I’m picking] some of both.
Madeleine: I know things about most of the movies, even if I haven't seen [most of] them and I have been following the awards seasons so I have some educated guesses.
Annie: Like many people, I completely missed out on new movie releases in 2020. I've read a lot of Oscars coverage, and I'm relying on my nerdiness about Oscars history to pick some likely winners. I'll also indulge in a little wishful thinking, since there are certain nominees I'm rooting for.
Katie: I’ve been keeping up with press coverage, but haven’t seen any of the films, so I mainly have predictions. I still have a few strong opinions to offer, though!
Best Picture
Nominations
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Annie: Minari may be an underdog up against strong contenders Nomadland and Judas and the Black Messiah, but I'm still hoping that this sun-drenched Americana story will take the top prize on Oscars night.
David: The Father -- a brilliant actor at the top of his game who avoids the pitfalls of what easily could have turned into a maudlin mess.
Madeleine: Critics are obsessed with [Nomadland]... I can't quite figure out the appeal, but it seems artistic and hard to watch, so it will probably win.
Katie: Anything besides Nomadland is probably an upset at this point, but Minari is definitely the most appealing to me out of these movies.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominations
Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Gary Oldman in Mank
Steven Yeun in Minari
David: Chadwick Boseman, he was brilliant.
Tom: Anthony Hopkins will likely win. The Father has the look of a winner and Hopkins reportedly gives a fantastic performance.
Annie: Chadwick Boseman would only be the third actor to win a posthumous Oscar (after Peter Finch in 1976 and Heath Ledger in 2008), but it seems like his powerful performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom thoroughly deserves it.
Madeleine: [Maybe] Riz Ahmed, The Sound Of Metal sounds fascinating.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominations
Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night In Miami...
Paul Raci in Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah
Annie: The Academy's controversial choice to nominate Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category may hurt their chances, since they could both be considered leading characters in this movie. Warner Brothers did campaign Kaluuya in the Supporting Actor category, though, and he's managed to win that award at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards, so I think he's a strong choice for an Oscar win.
David: Lakeith Stanfield took a difficult role and made it unique and alive. It would have languished in the hands of a lesser actor.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominations
Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand in Nomadland
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
Tom: Frances McDormand. Interesting choice to have her be the only professional actor in the entire cast.
Annie: I'm predicting that "Promising Young Woman" will lose out in a lot of categories, but Carey Mulligan may just get away with one major win.
Madeleine: Andra Day. She is supposed to be amazing and this was her first acting job and went really method and gritty.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominations
Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman in The Father
Amanda Seyfried in Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari
David: Olivia Colman's performance was restrained and disciplined. A masterful performance.
Tom: I’m a fan of [Colman’s] work and have read great things about her performance in this film.
Annie: It's difficult to overstate how much South Korea loves and respects Youn Yuh-Jung. She's a legend that brings strength and heart to every role she plays. I'm hoping this grande dame of acting will take her first Academy Award win next week.
Katie: I know people feel like Glenn Close should win after so many years of being passed over, but I’m not here for Hillbilly Elegy’s portrayal of Appalachia. But she’d be the first person to win a Razzie and an Oscar for the same role, which would be pretty great.
Madeleine: I am going to guess Glenn Close because, despite [Hillbilly Elegy getting] panned for political reasons, it is supposed to be really good.
Animated Feature Film
Nominations
Onward
Over The Moon
A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Annie: In both the Oscars and the box office, it's hard for any animated feature to stand up to the Disney/Pixar giant.
Tom: Soul. It’s always a good idea to bet on Pixar in this category.
David: Onward - truly a fresh original film that broke new ground.
Cinematography
Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah - Sean Bobbit
Mank - Erik Messerschmidt
News of the World - Dariusz Wolski
Nomadland - Joshua James Richards
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Phedon Papamichael
Tom: Nomadland.
Madeleine: Nomadland.
David: News of the World.
Katie: Mank might win favor for being in black-and-white, but as with a lot of categories, Nomadland is definitely the favorite.
Costume Design
Emma - Alexandra Byrne
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Ann Roth
Mank - Trish Summerville
Mulan - Bina Daigeler
Pinocchio - Massimo Cantini Parrini
Annie: Emma may not be a huge winner on Oscars night, but I absolutely love its over-the-top, pastel-hued Regency finery.
David: Mulan - huge undertaking, striking characters constructed through costumes.
Madeleine: I hate what they did to the story [of Mulan]... But it was pretty to look at.
Katie: I remember seeing some concerns about the historical/cultural accuracy of Mulan’s costumes and makeup, but I don’t think the Academy will be overly concerned about that. I love the 20s looks of Ma Rainey.
Directing
Nominations
Another Round - Thomas Vinterberg
Mank - David Fincher
Minari - Lee Isaac Chung
Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Madeleine: Chloé Zhao. I heard she worked so hard and really pulled together this movie [in addition to directing Nomadland, Zhao also wrote and edited the film]. Also, she’s a woman, and none were nominated last year and that was awkward.
Annie: I'm definitely rooting for a female director to win in this category (it would only be the second time in Oscars history that a woman has won Best Director). Emerald Fennell may have increased visibility to Academy voters since she also currently plays a young Camilla Parker-Bowles on The Crown, but I think Chloé Zhao will ultimately take the win.
Documentary (Feature)
Nominations
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
David: My Octopus Teacher [was] such a moving piece.
Katie: It’s interesting that three of the five movies are about disability rights, healthcare, and elder care, three intertwined topics that have been so relevant recently. Of the movies, I’ve seen the most buzz about Crip Camp, so that’s the film I think will win.
Documentary (Short Subject)
Nominations
Colette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
Katie: It would be great, but surprising, to see “Do Not Split” (about the Hong Kong protests) win. It could also help raise a lot of awareness if “Hunger Ward” (about the famine in Yemen) won.
Film Editing
Nominations
The Father - Yorgos Lamprinos
Nomadland - Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman - Frédéric Thoraval
Sound of Metal - Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten
David: The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Madeleine: Nomadland. I think it will be the overall winner.
International Feature Film
Nominations
Another Round - from Denmark
Better Days - from Hong Kong
Collective - from Romani
The Man Who Sold His Skin - from Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida? - from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Katie: Another Round is about men who decide to cope with a midlife crisis by drinking. That doesn’t sound like a movie I’d want to invest time in, but I would say it’s the favorite here based on how it’s done at other awards shows (excluding the Globes, which wrongly put Minari in this category).
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominations
Emma - Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
Hillbilly Elegy - Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
Mank - Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti
Katie: The last three years, really transformative makeup (as in, “wow, I can’t believe that’s Charlize Theron and not Megyn Kelly”) has won. If we go by that metric, Pinocchio (which largely used makeup instead of computer graphics) or Hillbilly Elegy (which gave Glenn Close and Amy Adams facial prosthetics, for some reason) will take the award.
Annie: Sergio Lopex-Rivera has a fascinating interview with The Hollywood Reporter about his research and thought process behind Ma Rainey's makeup and hair (it's well worth a read), so I'm hoping he and his team take a win for their story-driven, unglamorous styling of Viola Davis.
Music (Original Score)
Nominations
Da 5 Bloods - Terence Blanchard
Mank - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Minari - Emile Mosseri
News of the World - James Newton Howard
Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Tom: Soul.
Annie: Since the story of "Soul" heavily features jazz music, it looks like a strong contender in this category.
David: Soul's score made the movie great.
Madeleine: Soul. It was so fun and jazzy and creative
Katie: You might know Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (nominated for both Mank and Soul) better as the rock/metal band Nine Inch Nails. You also might know them for their other Oscar-winning score, The Social Network.
Music (Original Song)
Nominations
"Fight For You" from Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story Of Fire Saga S
"Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti A Se)
“Speak Now” from One Night In Miami...
David: “Fight For You” captured the essence of the story.
Production Design
Nominations
The Father - Peter Francis (Production Design) and Cathy Featherstone (Set Decoration)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Mark Ricker (Production Design), Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration) and Diana Stoughton (Set Decoration)
Mank - Donald Graham Burt (Production Design) and Jan Pascale (Set Decoration).
News of the World - David Crank (Production Design) and Elizabeth Keenan (Set Decoration)
Tenet - Nathan Crowley (Production Design) and Kathy Lucas (Set Decoration)
Annie: Splashy, big budget films usually win in this category, but I'm hoping that The Father will be an unconventional winner for its creative use of a single confined apartment where the entire story takes place.
David: Ma Rainey - gorgeous period piece beautifully done.
Short Film (Animated)
Nominations
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
Katie: Normally I’d pick the Disney short (which this year is “Burrow”). “If Anything Happens I Love You” (about parents’ grief after their daughter has been killed in a school shooting) has been widely praised by critics, and might win.
Short Film (Live Action)
Nominations
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Katie: “The Letter Room” has the most star-studded cast (with Oscar Isaac as the lead) but I’m going to guess that “The Present,” which features a scene that was short secretly at a checkpoint in Israel, will win.
Sound Editing
Nominations
Greyhound - Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
Mank - Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
News of the World - Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
Soul - Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
Sound of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
David: Sound of Metal - taking the audience through loss of hearing was effective and amazing.
Madeleine: Sound of Metal because moments of sound and lack thereof are super crucial to the story coming in finding that balance would be very difficult.
Katie: This is the first year that sound mixing and sound editing are a single category. While this will make the ceremony marginally shorter, it means that people who usually don’t get much recognition will get less time to shine.
Visual Effects
Nominations
Love and Monsters - Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
The Midnight Sky - Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
Mulan - Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
The One and Only Ivan - Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher
Madeleine: The One and Only Ivan. One of the main characters is CGI.
David: Tenet [had] seamless storytelling with effects.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominations
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan - Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern
Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
The Father - Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Nomadland - Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
One Night in Miami… - Screenplay by Kemp Powers
The White Tiger - Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
Annie: Nomadland will likely take this category for Chloé Zhao's adaptation of the non-fiction bestseller.
Katie: Some critics have taken issue with Nomadland deleting the book’s journalism (specifically, the book exposes poor working conditions at Amazon, but the Amazon of the film has adequate working conditions). I don’t expect this to deter many voters, but I’d like something truer to the source material to win.
Madeleine: I have only heard good things [about] The White Tiger
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominations
Judas and the Black Messiah - Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King
Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
Minari - Written by Lee Isaac Chun
Promising Young Woman - Written by Emerald Fennell
Sound of Metal - Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder
Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Written by Aaron Sorkin
Madeleine: Trial of the Chicago 7 because Aaron Sorkin is a genius and I adore his work. West Wing and A Few Good Men are everything I want in a tv series/movie.
Annie: Lee Isaac Chung wrote the screenplay for Minari just as he was about to give up on filmmaking for a more stable career in teaching. He drew on his own childhood immigration experience as he wrote the movie, quoting author Willa Cather who said "life began for me, when I ceased to admire and began to remember." I'm hoping his personal, vulnerable writing experience will earn him an Oscar win.
